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Expectancy

Explore the math connecting win rate, average wins/losses and transaction costs.

HYPOTHETICAL STRATEGY ASSUMPTIONS

This is an arithmetic model, not an estimate of your actual probability of success.

What this tool can and cannot tell you

Expectancy averages a hypothetical gain or loss per trade using your chosen win rate and outcome sizes. It does not account for estimation uncertainty, changing regimes, correlated results or distribution tails. A favorable estimate is not proof of a durable edge.

Study the concept: Expectancy — related Academy lesson ↗

All computations stay in your browser. No signup, live prices, brokerage connections, or guarantees.