Write a defensible evidence statement

THE IDEA~8–12 MINUTES

Understand it

Record the dataset, period, contract mapping, rule version, costs, sample size, in-sample/out-of-sample division, results and limitations. A statement about historical simulated returns must be labeled hypothetical. Identify a scheduled review cadence and predefine what evidence would pause or retire the strategy. The review should distinguish plan compliance from strategy performance.

WORKED EXAMPLE

A result of 60 trades in one low-volatility year is not evidence that the method works across high-volatility conditions. A defensible statement identifies that limitation.

Watch for this misconception

Reporting only total profit while omitting drawdown, costs, sample size and the experiment history.

PRACTICE EXERCISE

Draft three sentences: what your test suggests, what it cannot establish and what you will test next.

Trading plan builder ↗

KNOWLEDGE CHECK

Which makes a backtest report more credible?

Check the sources

Hypothetical educational examples. Verify current product specifications and rules before making decisions.